TOR 5. Using data produced under TOR 2, provide supporting inputs for project proponents from candidate sites. Evaluate various models and undertake LULUCF modeling of the districts with and without CDM projects to help develop baselines and address the typology and management of specific aspects such as additionality, leakage, permanence, risk and uncertainty.

Product:

Quantitative assessments of carbon stock scenarios for candidate sites

Due date: 9 months signing contract.

Backgrounds:

Once the potential pilot sites have been identified, work with project proponents to develop GIS information for each candidate area showing detailed land use and ownership. Using the details of land use for candidate pilot sites, improvements in the potential quantity of carbon sequestration will be needed, along with estimates of the costs for implementing such projects. The CIFOR-ICRAF team will be responsible for the carbon modeling using more site-specific data on suitable species and management practices.

Under this task, a projection of the baseline (without CDM activities) changes in land-use for the pilot sites will need to be developed. Projections of changes in land-use with CDM activities combined with modeled outputs of changes in carbon stocks will be used to produce the carbon baseline against which pilot sites can be compared for estimating the net effects of the CDM type activities.

CIFOR staff members have co-developed CO2FIX, a stand level simulation model, which quantifies carbon stocks and fluxes in tree biomass, soil organic matter component as well as the wood products chain. This model is user-friendly and applicable to afforestation projects, smallholder tree-farming systems and industrial tree plantations. It includes options to address operational and managerial risks as well as natural calamities (fire, infestation, drought, etc.). The recent CO2LAND takes this analysis to a landscape scale.

ICRAF staff members gave developed the WaNuLCAS and FALLOW models for evaluation of carbon stocks in soil and vegetation at field and landscape level, respectively.

Working with project proponents, local stakeholders, and the Winrock-LMGC team, the CIFOR/ICRAF team will verify necessary inputs to the various models and use the results in a ‘triangulation’ approach to develop improved estimates of the carbon sequestration potential for the selected sites. The same group will consider the social and economic consequences of various approaches and describe the advantages of the chosen approach. ICRAF-CIFOR will help develop an analysis of the opportunity cost of various land use options and the transaction costs under various approaches.